tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74888574222624311692009-12-31T08:48:16.212ZDaily Market Reports published daily by Alastair Archbold from the Foremost Currency Group. Keep up to date with Sterling Euro Forecasts and the Sterling Exchange Rate Outlook for all major currencies. Want the Best Exchange Rates? Look no further.FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comBlogger222125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-46677485384367637472009-12-31T08:36:00.002Z2009-12-31T08:48:16.225Z<div>Sterling recovered from lows against the US Dollar and Euro yesterday, caught up in the end of year flows and holiday-thinned trading volumes. Rates @08:30am are as follows:</div><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1194</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6132</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.7931</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2194</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.6908</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6633</li><li>GBP/JPY 148.87</li><li>GBP/ZAR 11.863</li><li>EUR/USD 1.4406</li></ul><div>Sterling is still weighed down by gloom over the economy and rising public debt. However, traders said late month end flows towards the end of the session helped spark a solid recovery in euro/sterling, with extremely thin volumes helping to exaggerate price movements.</div><div></div><br /><div>This year has been challenging for the UK currency. Although sterling has appreciated by around 6 percent against the euro in 2009, this was from a record low point late in 2008 - almost exactly a year ago, when GBP/EUR rates almost reached parity. We saw a recovery to nearly €1.20, however when the Bank of England decided to create £200bn pounds in Quantitiative Easing to try and boost the economy, rates tumbled again. </div><br /><div></div><div>Where all other major economies have exited recession this year, the UK is still lagging behind. Concerns over the level of our public debt and levels of spending mean the UK is at risk of having our credit rating downgraded, like Greece and Spain recently did. </div><div></div><br /><div>For these reasons, going into 2010 the pound will continue to face pressure. I don't think we'll see a decent recovery for Sterling until the General election, be that in March or May. All the while, other economies are racing ahead, and their currencies will strengthen before ours. </div><div></div><br /><div>All in all, 2009 was a challenging year for Sterling, however 2010 may be more so. </div><div></div><br /><div>Daily reports will continue here as usual on Monday 4th January. Until then, I hope everyone has good New Year Celebrations, and wishing all regular readers a prosperous 2010. We can help you get the best rates possible for all your currency needs during the next year. Our rates are up to 6% better than the banks offer, and trading with us is a simply process. </div><br /><div></div><div>Open an account for free by clicking the links below. Happy New Year. </div><br /><div></div><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vAY0KStDEkE/Szxk_a5LGtI/AAAAAAAAALU/3tQ1cCPaKUA/s1600-h/newyear.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5421319092160895698" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 300px" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vAY0KStDEkE/Szxk_a5LGtI/AAAAAAAAALU/3tQ1cCPaKUA/s400/newyear.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><em></em></div><br /><div><br /></div><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"></a></p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a><br /><br /><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-4667748538436763747?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-52604961852311479162009-12-30T08:26:00.002Z2009-12-30T08:38:17.989ZGood Morning. Sterling dropped against the US Dollar and Euro yesterday, but strategists said the moves were due to holiday-thinned volumes. It's hard to be bullish on the UK economy and 2010 will be a difficult year for the UK. Any strength in sterling is just a product of it being undervalued. Rates @ 08:30am are as follows:<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1078</li><li>GBP/USD 1.5883</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.7805</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2150</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6490</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.6646</li><li>GBP/JPY 146.36</li><li>GBP/ZAR 11.747</li><li>EUR/USD 1.4343</li></ul><p><strong>Good news for UK Retail Sales</strong></p><p>Shoppers have been flocking to the High Street over the Christmas weekend, with numbers far exceeding those from this time last year, figures have shown. The number of shoppers out on Sunday, 27 December was 17.9% up on the same Sunday last year, said Experian, a research house that measures footfall. Experts said shoppers may be racing to beat the VAT increase in January.</p><p>It's important to remember though the fact that this year, retailers did not start their sales before Christmas. Last year they slashed their prices in the week before Christmas, because they really needed to get rid of their stock. "hey've taken a far more measured approach to the Christmas period this year. In this regard, then, the bubble is somewhat artificial and should not be taken to mean that consumers feel the recession is behind them.</p><strong>UK Unemployment</strong><br />Unemployment will peak at 2.8 million in 2010, according to the latest forecast from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. The business group said unemployment would continue to rise for the first six months of the new year, despite the recovery in the UK economy. The forecast is more optimistic than previous predictions, however does show that analysts don't expect the recovery in the UK to happen until well into next year, which will hinder pound rates rising.<br /><br /><strong>Bank must lend more</strong><br />There should be more competition in the banking sector with more lending from non-UK banks made available to small firms, a group has said. In its new year message, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) called for banks to return to their "normal lending criteria".<br /><em></em><br />Despite the Quantitative Easing measures the Bank of England have been taking over the last year, banks have still not been lending, and this has also hindered recovery from recession. Until there are proper incentives for the banks to lend, this will remain unchanged.<br /><br /><strong>Todays Data</strong><br />not much really. From the US we have Crude Oil Stocks Change &amp; the Purchasing Managers Index<br /><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><br /><p></p><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a></p><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-5260496185231147916?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-41477965798066130352009-12-29T08:28:00.002Z2009-12-29T08:40:14.876ZGood Morning and welcome back after the Christmas break. Exchange rates are much as they were before the break, with GBP/USD rates slightly up, and GBP/EUR pretty much unchanged. Rates @ 08:30am are as follows:<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1126</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6058</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.7974</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2543</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.6717</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6532</li><li>GBP/ZAR 11.947</li><li>GBP/JPY 147.03</li><li>EUR/USD 1.4428</li></ul>Sterling has been weighed down this week since a disappointing revision to third quarter UK growth figures, and as minutes from the latest Bank of England policy meeting were perceived as leaving the door open to further monetary easing.<br /><br />"Sentiment towards sterling is still overwhelmingly negative. If there are any crowded trades out there it's that people are very short of sterling," said Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.<br /><br />It is difficult to see any catalyst for any correction, even though sterling is historically very cheap at the moment.<br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>This Weeks Data</strong><br />It's a quiet week for data releases due to the short week. The only data of note for the UK is the nationwide House prices on Thursday. This shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy, and so can have an impact on the value of Sterling.<br /><br />For the EU we have Consumer Price Index for Germany. This measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).<br /><br />Elsewhere, there is a measure of Jobless claims from the US. This is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy.<br /><br />With little data, and worldwide trading volumes much thinner than usual, surprises in the data below could cause bigger swings than usual in exchange rates. Get in touch with us today to discuss the implications of this on your particular currency requirement.<br /><br /><strong>Tuesday</strong><br /><em>Ger - Consumer Price Index</em><br /><em>US - Consumer Confidence</em><br /><br /><strong>Wednesday</strong><br /><em>US - Crude Oil Stocks Change<br />US - Purchasing Managers Index</em><br /><br /><strong>Thursday</strong><br /><em>UK - Nationwide House Prices</em><br /><em>US - Jobless Claims</em><br /><br /><strong>Friday</strong><br /><em>Holiday</em><br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-4147796579806613035?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-39956471272986501622009-12-24T08:35:00.002Z2009-12-24T08:42:55.451ZSterling fell to its lowest in more than 1 week against the Euro and many other major currencies yesterday, after the Bank of England minutes were seen as leaving the door open to a further expansion of its <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing">Quantitative Easing</a> asset buying programme. Rates @ 08:30am are as follows:<br /><div></div><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1131</li><li>GBP/USD 1.5985</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.8112</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2645</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.6753</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6581</li><li>GBP/JPY 145.85</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.047</li><li>EUR/USD 1.4353</li></ul><div>The pound fell after a Daily Mail article said there may be more QE, however most think this won't happen, and as we know the Daily Mail do like alarmist stories, so I wouldn't read too much into it at the moment as no proper news source believes it will happen. </div><div></div><br /><div>Not really that much happening in the currency markets today in terms of data releases. US - Jobless Claims and Japanese Jobless Rate is about it, as the markets slow as Christmas approaches. </div><br /><div></div><div>It is important to note however that as trade volumes are very thin this week, any positive or negative news can have a bigger impact than normal on exchange rates. </div><br /><div></div><div>That's about it. I hope you all have a very Merry Christmas, and blog service and trading services will resume as normal on Tuesday. </div><br /><div></div><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vAY0KStDEkE/SzMpZLYiTCI/AAAAAAAAALM/W0n_2I74WEc/s1600-h/xmas.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5418720289186008098" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 400px" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vAY0KStDEkE/SzMpZLYiTCI/AAAAAAAAALM/W0n_2I74WEc/s400/xmas.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><div></div><br /><div><em></em></div><br /><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></div><br /><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-3995647127298650162?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-30717955104037678722009-12-23T11:16:00.002Z2009-12-23T11:22:30.304ZGood Morning. Sterling dipped against the US Dollar and Euro this morning after Bank of England policy minutes for December showed a unanimous vote to keep rates at a record low and maintain its asset purchasing target. Rates @ 11:15am are as follows (later than usual - I was stuck in the snow!)<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1178</li><li>GBP/USD 1.5939</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.8217</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2782</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.6800</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6674</li><li>GBP/JPY 146.26</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.284</li><li>EUR/USD 1.4254</li></ul><strong>Bank of England Minutes</strong><br />All nine members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to hold interest rates at its December meeting. Minutes from the meeting also showed that the MPC was unanimous in voting to maintain the £200bn quantitative easing (QE), or asset buying, programme.<br /><br />The MPC agreed that the medium-term outlook for inflation had not changed since its November inflation report, and also said that it was difficult to identify with any certainty whether the economy had turned, adding that events in Dubai and Greece were a reminder of the potential for shocks that might impact the UK.<br /><br />So, with the UK remaining the only major economy still in recession, fears continue over when we will recover, and this is reflected in the value of the pound at the moment.<br /><br /><strong>Gross Domestic Product</strong><br />Yesterday we had the revised GDP for the UK. Labour's economic credibility was further damaged after new figures revealed Britain's economy remains mired in recession.<br /><br />While France and Germany came out of recession in June, the figures reveal Britain's economy shrank by a worse than expected 0.2% between July and September.<br /><br />Economists had been hoping for Britain to begin emerging from recession, but in a fresh blow to Chancellor Alistair Darling, a fall in output for the UK's powerhouse services saw the economy dragged lower.<br /><br />Earlier this month, Mr Darling forecast in his Pre-Budget Report that the economy would contract by 4.75 % this year and would grow by between 1 and 1.5 % during 2010.<br />But experts fear those figures are optimistic and the British economy could struggle to begin to grow next year.<br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-3071795510403767872?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-46078821932542056312009-12-22T08:36:00.002Z2009-12-22T08:50:25.712Z<p>Sterling remained under pressure on Monday after dipping to two-month lows against the dollar late last week after a spate of weak UK economic data. Rates @ 08:30am are as follows:<br /><br />GBP/EUR 1.1221<br />GBP/USD 1.6083<br />GBP/AUD 1.8211<br />GBP/NZD 2.2736<br />GBP/CAD 1.7019<br />GBP/CHF 1.6791<br />GBP/ZAR 12.376<br />GBP/JPY 146.61<br />GBP/NOK 9.3891<br />EUR/USD 1.4327 </p><p><strong>Pound to Euro</strong><br />Last week saw Sterling steadily climb against the Euro, reaching highs not seen since early November. This was more due to Euro weakness than Sterling strength, with several credit rating agencies reducing the credit ratings of Spain and Greece, undermining the single currency.<br /><br />Another factor supporting Sterling last week was renewed optimism over the credit problems in Dubai, as Abu Dhabi is now looking likely to be able to cover any shortfall in repayments. This came as welcome news to UK banks, who are believed to have up to £5bn exposure to the situation.<br /><br />Looking to the week ahead, markets may be a little quieter in the run up to the Christmas break, with many questioning whether the current Euro weakness is a sign of things to come, or whether these setbacks are temporary. </p><br />Despite a bank holiday on Friday, we have plenty of significant data releases coming up. Tuesday sees the final UK GDP figure for Q3, with some analysts expecting a further upward revision to a narrow 0.1% contraction, extremely close to coming out of recession. We also have Bank of England minutes from the meeting earlier in the month, likely to provide insight into monetary policy going forward for 2010.<br /><br /><strong>USD<br /></strong>The British Pound slipped to a fresh monthly low of 1.6053 last week against the US Dollar following an unexpected drop in U.K. retail sales. The GBP/USD is likely to face increased volatility as the final 3Q GDP report (Tuesday) and the minutes of the Bank of England policy meeting (Wednesday) will be the highlights of a holiday-shortened week.<br /><br />Economists expect the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to revise up its estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth to just -0.1pc or possibly zero. The CBI has also predicted that, regardless of the third quarter revision, the recession will be over by the end of the year.<br /><br />It forecasts that economic output will have grown 0.5% between October and December. If these predictions prove correct it is likely to strengthen Sterling and has the potential to recoup the recent losses benefiting those wishing to buy the Dollar.<br /><br />Across the pond in the US attention will also focus on the release of US GDP figures for the third-quarter of 2009. If the market's consensus of growth above 2.0% proves correct, the Dollar could make further headway benefiting those wishing to sell their Dollars to purchase Sterling.<br /><br />In short we could see a very volatile week of exchange rates prior to the Christmas holidays and possibly lasting until the New Year, to safe guard yourself from any undesired shifts please contact your FCG account manager to discuss the various options available to you.<br /><em></em><br />Here at FCG, we will be working normal hours aside from bank holidays, so please do give us a call to discuss your currency requirements further.<br /><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a><br /><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-4607882193254205631?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-17676935765286654052009-12-21T10:59:00.002Z2009-12-21T11:20:40.939ZGood Morning. Sterling held steady this morning, after dipping to 2 month lows against the US dollar late last week. Pound Euro rates are still better than of late, due to weakness in the Eurozone. The pound remains under pressure however due to a spate of weak UK economic data and a broadly firmer dollar. Rates at 11am Monday 21st December are as follows:<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1240</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6120</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.8223</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2745</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7134</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6799</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.292</li><li>GBP/JPY 145.72</li><li>GBP/NOK 9.4212</li><li>EUR/USD 1.4337</li></ul><strong>Pound to US Dollar &amp; Euro</strong><br />Rates have dropped due to a weak pound, and better than expect data from the US cause strength in the dollar. Against the Euro, fears over the EU banking sector and the downgrading of some EU countries credit rating have weakened the single currency. The pound remains weak, but the Euro is weaker, cause rates to climb last week.<br /><br />Markets will watch for any further news of Quantitative Easing from the Bank of England, as this will likely be the main driver for Sterling Exchange rates into 2010. The wide expectation is that any further expansion of QE would most likely happen in February.<br /><br />A series of surprisingly disappointing data releases recently for the UK has reinvigorated market expectations that we may see something sooner. Such a fear will likely keep sterling on the backfoot unless the data can begin to improve.<br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>This Weeks Data</strong><br />This week is a fairly quiet one for data releases, in the run up to the Christmas break. For the UK, the main news to watch for is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Tuesday, and the Bank of England minutes on Wednesday. <br /><br />GDP is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity and health, and so can have a big impact on Sterlings Value. We expect the figures to show a monthly decline of -0.1% and an annual decline of -4.9%. Any difference will likely affect the pound.<br /><br />The Bank of England minutes are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. Watch for any mention of further Quantitative Easing, which is one of the main things that have kept Sterling weak this year.<br /><br />Elsewhere, we also have GDP for New Zealand and Canada. In the US there are some jobless figures, along with a measure of consumer confidence.<br /><br />It's also important to remember that trading volumes will be much thinner this week than usual, and so data releases can have a bigger effect on the currency markets than usual.<br /><br /><strong>Monday</strong><br /><em>Can - Retail Sales</em><br /><em>Jap - Bank of Japan Economic Survey</em><br /><br /><strong>Tuesday</strong><br /><em>Ger - Consumer Confidence</em><br /><em>UK - Gross Domestic Product</em><br /><em>UK - Home Sales</em><br /><em>NZ - Gross Domestic Product</em><br /><br /><strong>Wednesday</strong><br /><em>UK - Bank of England Minutes</em><br /><em>UK - Mortgage Approvals</em><br /><em>EU - Industrial Orders</em><br /><em>Can - Gross Domestic Product</em><br /><em>US - New Home Sales</em><br /><em>US - Consumer Sentiment</em><br /><em>Jap - Bank of Japan Minutes</em><br /><br /><strong>Thursday</strong><br /><em>US - Jobless Claims</em><br /><em>Jap - Jobless Rate</em><br /><br /><strong>Friday</strong><br />Christmas Day, Markets Closed<br /><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-1767693576528665405?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-14479299987371941082009-12-17T08:37:00.003Z2009-12-17T08:47:07.232ZGood Morning. The pound rose yesterday again, after better than expected jobs data for the UK. At 08;30am this morning, rates are as follows:<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1260</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6222</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.8192</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2742</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7306</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6966</li><li>GBP/NOK 9.4462</li><li>GBP/JPY 145.46</li><li>EUR/USD 1.4398</li></ul><p><strong>UK Employment</strong></p><p>The number of people unemployed in the UK rose by 21,000 between August and October to 2.49 million. The increase was the smallest rise in the jobless total since the 2nd quarter in 2008, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showed. The markets were expecting the figures to be much worse, and that's why the pound rose yesterday.</p><p>Analysts said the figures boosted optimism for a rebound in the UK economy in the fourth quarter, although concerns remained that unemployment may rise again next year as the government is forced to rein in spending to reduce a ballooning deficit, and so this spike may be temporary. </p><p>Speaking on the data, UK finance minister Alistair Darling said they were "very encouraging" but cautioned it "would be a mistake to believe that somehow the corner has now been turned".<br />He also said that the Bank of England and the government would need to work together on exiting from the central bank's quantitative easing policy.</p><p><strong>US Interest Rates stay on hold</strong></p><p>The Federal Reserve has decided to keep US interest rates on hold at between 0% and 0.25%, as had been widely expected. Despite continuing signs that the US economy is recovering, the central bank reiterated that rates would stay at the low level for an "extended period". </p><p>With inflation continuing to be low, the Fed is not under pressure to increase interest rates as a means to tackle any inflationary pressure. Instead, it can keep the cost of borrowing low to help the US economy continue to rebound. </p><p>Separate official US figures on Wednesday indicated that the economic recovery remains on track. This would normally strengthen the US Dollar, but in the current climate of the USD being a safe haven currency, good news from the states spurs investment into other currencies, benefiting Sterling, and may cause GBP/USD rates to fall. </p><em><strong>Todays Data</strong></em><br />UK - Retail Sales<br />Can - Consumer Price Index<br />US - Jobless Claims<br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><br /><p></p><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a></p><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-1447929998737194108?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-45186617136010563052009-12-16T08:33:00.002Z2009-12-16T08:44:52.047ZGood Morning. Pound Euro rates rose yesterday after fears over the Austrian banking sector weakened the Euro, making it cheaper to purchase. The pound is still weak though, and exchange rates to other currencies such as the US Dollar dropped. Rates @ 08:30am are :<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1185</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6260</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.8132</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2690</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6919</li><li>GBP/NOK 9.4279</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7254</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.074</li><li>GBP/JPY 145.74</li><li>EUR/USD 1.4537</li></ul><strong>Weak Euro</strong><br />Oesterreichische Volksbanken, Austria's top cooperative bank, was on a regulator's watchlist at risk of nationalisation yesterday. Worries over Austrian banks slammed the Euro to its lowest in more than two months against the dollar and lowest against the pound in a month. investors then sold the Euro, mostly against the US Dollar, which weakened the Euro and caused pound euro rates to climb. Pound to Dollar rates dropped.<br /><br /><strong>UK Inflation</strong><br />UK inflation picked up pace in November, driven largely by higher petrol prices, official figures show. The consumer prices index (CPI) rose faster than expected to an annual rate of 1.9%, compared with 1.5% in October. The currency markets reacted little to the news however, with Euro selling causing the rise in rates. The pound actually dropped through the day.<br /><br />Economists said the pick-up in UK inflation was due to base effects and temporary factors but could still go further in the coming months, although underlying spare capacity in the economy should mean the BoE maintains an accommodative policy stance. This means they will keep the option open of more Quantitative Easing which will keep pressure on the pound.<br /><br />However in contrast, Sterling actually clawed back some ground against the USD late in the day after a Bank of England policymaker said concern over asset prices getting out of line was a key reason for caution about future extension of quantitative easing.<br /><br /><strong>Today's Data</strong><br /><em>Aus - Gross Domestic Product</em><br /><em>UK - Average Earnings</em><br /><em>UK - Unemployment</em><br /><em>UK - Jobless Claims</em><br /><em>EU - Consumer Price Index</em><br /><em>US - Building Permits</em><br /><em>US - Consumer Price Index</em><br /><em>US - Interest Rate Decision</em><br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a><br /><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-4518661713601056305?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-68972624015339427922009-12-15T08:25:00.005Z2009-12-15T09:10:30.231ZGood Morning. In a light day for UK data yesterday, the pound rose slightly on news that Dubai has been bailed out by Abu Dhabi to the tune of £10bn. <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8411215.stm">Read a report on the BBC site here</a>. This boosted risk appetite for riskier currencies such as the pound.<br /><br />However, concern surrounding Britain's public debt and potential threat to its triple-A sovereign credit rating meant the pound lost some of the small gains. At 08:30am rates are as follows:<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1160</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6256</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.7900</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2505</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7256</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6879</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.090</li><li>GBP/JPY 144.67</li><li>GBP/NOK 9.4761</li><li>EUR/USD 1.4559</li></ul><p><strong>Euro<br /></strong>The main reasons rates are higher are two fold. First, the news that Dubai has been bailed out is a good signal for Sterling. Perhaps a seemingly distant influence it is important to remember that Sterling is perceived as a riskier currency far more likely to attract investors when the global stage is stable. Additionally with much of Dubai’s money borrowed from British banks any news of a bale out is likely to have positive effects on Sterling and could lead to rises. </p><p>Also, with Greece and Spain having their credit rating reduced, and the riots in Greece at the moment are causing weakness in the Euro. This has caused rates to rise.</p><p>With both the highs of 1.20 and the lows close to parity seeming a distant memory, it seems as though the high volatility of the GBP/EUR exchange rate has fluctuated over the past few weeks. This was only echoed by the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates and any further Quantitative Easing, much as expected and therefore having little effect on Sterling.<br /><br />The most significant news from the UK came from Parliament this week after the Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling announced the annual Pre-Budget Report. However, rather then what Mr. Darling said, it was his reluctance to explain a solution to Britain’s mounting debt crisis that led to concern. As a result this fuelled speculation that the UK credit rating may be reduced; a threat that could severely damage the rates for those looking to buy Euros.<br /><br />In Europe German factory orders were weaker than expected falling by 2.1% in October, this was coupled with a weaker German industrial production dropping by 1.8% and giving the Euro no real stepping stone to advance. Further worries came as Greece and Spain's sovereign credit rating were downgraded indicated a higher level of risk to investors. All of which devalued the Euro and perhaps more crucially revealed a slowdown in Euro Zone recovery, a scenario that could greatly disadvantage anyone selling Euros.<br /><br />For the Euro to make ground this coming week, markets will need to see further confirmation that the Euro zone is making continued steps towards sustained growth. Confirmation of this could come from releases of unemployment figures (Monday), German ZEW Index (Tuesday), construction output data (Thursday) or German business sentiment figures on Friday.</p><p><strong>US Dollar</strong><br />Sterling fell to a one-month low versus the U.S Dollar, after <a href="http://www.moodys.com/cust/default.asp">Moody's</a> Investors Services described the UK as weaker than top rated countries like Germany and the US. The Pound fell to a low of $1.6199, as global stocks deteriorated, boosting demand for safe haven assets.<br /><br />Given the uncertainty over the UK’s fiscal position due to our huge levels of debt, it’s likely that GBP/USD rates will remain volatile over the coming months. Couple this with the fact the USD is a safe haven currency, as they exit recession and risk appetite increases, we could also see USD weakness as a result. </p>Due to this extreme uncertainty, clients may wish to protect themselves against adverse rate movements. Using a <a href="http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2009/01/forward-contract.html">Forward contract </a>to do this will enable you to lock into a rate of exchange the moment you know you have a currency requirement in the future. It will protect you against any market movement, both positive and negative and you will know exactly how much the transaction will cost you giving you peace of mind. With the markets so volatile, simply hoping rates may move in your favour is a risky proposition.<br /><br />Looking ahead to the upcoming week’s economic event risks from the US includes industrial production data on Tuesday, consumer price inflation data and housing construction starts early Wednesday.<br /><br />If the results are better than expected it could give some strength to the Dollar however, late Wednesday will see attention drawn to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest rate decision which should be monitored closely for any monetary policy statement change as this key event has the ability to revive the US Dollar.<br /><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a><br /><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-6897262401533942792?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-13684388657994761572009-12-14T08:26:00.002Z2009-12-14T09:03:49.260ZGood Morning. As usual for a Monday, we'll have a quick look at where rates went last week, and a full breakdown of the weeks data that may affect exchange rates. This morning, pound rates are as follows:<br /><ul><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">GBP</span>/EUR 1.1057</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">USD</span> 1.6217</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">AUD</span> 1.7806</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">NZD</span> 2.2369</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">GBP</span>/CAD 1.7216</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">CHF</span> 1.6722</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">ZAR</span> 12.120</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">JPY</span> 143.70</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">NOK</span> 9.3658</li><li>EUR/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">USD</span> 1.4662</li></ul><strong>Overview of last week.</strong><br />Last week we saw Greece and Spain have their credit ratings reduced, weakening the Euro and causing <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">GBP/EUR</span> rates to climb. There were fears the UK may face the same problem, but on Friday major ratings agency said Britain's top-notch sovereign rating was under no immediate threat.<br /><br />Sterling fell against the dollar, however, as stronger-than-expected U.S. data lent broad support to the U.S. currency, while worries about the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">UK's</span> shaky situation continued to weigh on sentiment towards the pound.<br /><br />The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">pre</span> budget report gave little real news, and was more like an <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">pre</span> election report. The chancellor said our huge deficit would be halved within 4 years, but declined to give any information on how they plan to do this. With no meaningful steps being taken, investors remain wary about Sterling, and this likely cause exchange rates to stay low.<br /><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>This Weeks Data</strong><br />As usual, we'll list a full breakdown of the most important data releases. A brief breakdown of each economic area is as follows:<br /><br />For the UK, eyes will be on economic data releases after last weeks political <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Pre</span> budget report. There was little in the report that outlined how the government plan to repay the huge deficit, other than 'they will half it' within 4 years. We have already had house price index this morning, showing that prices declined 2.2% when the predicted drop was only 1.6% causing some weakness in Sterling. later in the week we have Retail Sales (widely considered as a key measure of inflation that indicates an accurate reflection of the cost of living) and unemployment and jobless data. This is also a reflection of the health of the economy as a whole, and can therefore affect <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Sterlings</span> Value.<br /><br />In the EU, last week saw Greece and Spain have their credit rating reduced. this weakened the Euro, and cause <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">GBP</span>/EUR rates to climb benefiting those purchasing the single currency. We have employment data and industrial production data this week. This shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. We expect the figures to show a decline of around 10%.<br /><br />In the US, we have lots of employment data on Wednesday, along with an interest rate decision. This interest rate affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the exchange rate as a higher rate is more attractive for investors, and causes strength. We expect rates to be left at a record low of 0.00% - 0.25%.<br /><br /><strong>Monday</strong><br /><em>EU - Employment</em><br /><em>EU - Industrial Production</em><br /><br /><strong>Tuesday</strong><br /><em><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Aus</span> - <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">RBA</span> Minutes</em><br /><em>UK - Consumer Price Index</em><br /><em>UK - Retail Price Index</em><br /><em>UK - House Price Index</em><br /><em>EU - Economic Sentiment</em><br /><em>US - Producer Price Index</em><br /><em>US - Industrial Production</em><br /><br /><strong>Wednesday</strong><br /><em><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">Aus</span> - Gross Domestic Product</em><br /><em>UK - Average Earnings</em><br /><em>UK - Unemployment</em><br /><em>UK - Jobless Claims</em><br /><em>EU - Consumer Price Index</em><br /><em>US - Building Permits</em><br /><em>US - Consumer Price Index</em><br /><em>US - Interest Rate Decision</em><br /><br /><strong>Thursday</strong><br /><em>UK - Retail Sales</em><br /><em>Can - Consumer Price Index</em><br /><em>US - Jobless Claims</em><br /><br /><strong>Friday</strong><br /><em><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">Jap</span> - Interest Rate Decision</em><br /><em>Ger - Producer Price Index</em><br /><em>UK - Money Supply</em><br /><em>UK - Business Investment</em><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><br /><p></p><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a></p><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-1368438865799476157?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-2269779994392939022009-12-11T08:30:00.004Z2009-12-11T08:50:28.616Z<span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Good</span> Morning. The pound slipped very slightly against the US Dollar and the Euro yesterday, over concerns over the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">UK's</span> fiscal position and the prospect of low UK interest rates well into next year didn't help Sterling. At 08:30am pound rates are as follows:<br /><ul><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">GBP</span>/EUR 1.1067</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">USD</span> 1.6312</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">AUD</span> 1.7804</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">NZD</span> 2.2449</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">GBP</span>/CAD 1.7135</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">CHF</span> 1.6730</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">ZAR</span> 12.256</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">JPY</span> 144.88</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">NOK</span> 9.3582</li><li>EUR/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">USD</span> 1.4739</li></ul>The Bank of England held rates at 0.5% as expected yesterday, and there was no new Quantitative Easing.<br /><br />This had little impact on the Pound, which had earlier stemmed losses from the previous day in the wake of finance minister Alistair Darling's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">pre</span>-budget report and on persistent concerns about Britain's fiscal health.<br /><br /><strong>UK Interest Rates</strong><br />The Bank of England kept rates on hold, and economists are predicting that they will keep interest rates at 'one per cent or lower' for the next five years.<br /><br />The prediction will delight millions of homeowners who are saving a fortune from the massive cuts in their monthly mortgage payments, however in terms of a recovery in exchange rates, this is bad news.<br /><br />A prolonged period of low interest rates will be required to allow the economy to withstand the looming fiscal austerity, however low rates here while there are better rates to be had in the EU and US as those economies raise interest rates, means that investors will put funds into these other currencies. This will strengthen them, and the pound will likely remain weak while there is little return.<br /><br />With regards to Quantitative Easing, most analysts expect the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">BoE</span> has finished with its quantitative easing programme, but that it will not raise interest rates from their record low until at least October next year. In contrast, we expect EU rates to start going up early in the new year, and this will probably stop <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">GBP</span>/EUR rates recovering.<br /><br /><strong>Economic Data</strong><br />Most US data yesterday afternoon came in much as expected, meaning yesterday overall was a very flat day on the markets, with hardly any movement in key rates at all.<br /><br />Today, we have Producer Price Index for the UK at 09:30am. This is a monthly measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by the UK manufactures when buying goods and services. It captures changes in the average price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by the UK Manufactures.<br /><br />This afternoon, the European Central Bank a press conference as to how the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">ECB</span> observes the current European economy and the value of EUR. The comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.<br /><br />Later on we have Retail Sales for the US, giving an idea how the high streets are performing. This afternoon we have Import Prices also from the states, which informs the changes in the price of imported products into the US. The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation, the higher probability of a rate rise.<br /><br />That's it for this week folks. Have a great weekend, and on Monday morning I'll analyse next weeks data and look at where Sterling exchange rates are headed.<br /><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a><br /><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-226977999439293902?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-3878288057758669472009-12-10T08:31:00.002Z2009-12-10T08:47:24.978ZGood Morning. Sterling was mixed yesterday after the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">pre</span>-budget report. The pound briefly rallied against the euro and the dollar on Wednesday after UK finance minister Alistair Darling said there will be no windfall tax on bank profits, however the lack of any clear direction on our <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">deficit</span> doesn't bode well. This morning rates are as follows:<br /><ul><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">GBP</span>/EUR 1.1057</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">USD</span> 1.6254</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">AUD</span> 1.7789</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">NZD</span> 2.2364</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">GBP</span>/CAD 1.7187</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">CHF</span> 1.6727</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">JPY</span> 143.16</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">NOK</span> 9.3728</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">ZAR</span> 12.318</li><li>EUR/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">USD</span> 1.4692</li></ul><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Pre</span> Budget Report<br />We won't analyse the whole report here, simply cover what it means for exchange rates. For an outline of the key points, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8403636.stm">the BBC has a clear simply fact sheet. </a><br /><br />The only real points that may affect currency were on growth forecasts. Economy forecast to shrink 4.75% in 2009, worse than 3.5% forecast in April. Growth of 1%-1.5% expected in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011 and 2012. It wasn't made clear how Darling arrived at these figures though, and the IMF and credit agencies have a less rosy view.<br /><br />The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">pre</span>-budget report was a bit of a letdown according to most analysts. It was really nothing more than electioneering, with no real news at all. In a foretaste of the looming general election battle, he said the choice was between going for growth or putting the recovery at risk - a choice between "two competing visions". But he was also forced to admit that the recession in the UK had been worse than he predicted last year. Exchange rates remain largely unchanged, as there was no clear path on how they plan to reduce the deficit, simply stating it would be halved within 4 years.<br /><br />UK Credit Problems<br />Britain is still in danger of losing its triple-A credit rating and the Conservatives would make protecting it a priority if elected next year, Shadow Chancellor George Osborne said.<br /><br />Osbourne said that there was not enough in the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">pre</span>-budget report to soothe fears that Britain might lose its credit rating. "I don't think it is a credible plan. Unfortunately, the measures announced yesterday don't start tackling the deficit until 2014/15 and that is far too late. "The thing I'm aiming for is making sure that Britain keeps its credit rating."<br /><br />Osborne also said that although monetary policy was a matter for the Bank of England, it was important to keep interest rates as low as possible for longer. This brings us nicely to the interest rate decision today...<br /><br />Interest Rate Decision<br />The Bank of England is expected to announce no change in policy when it reveals the outcome of its most recent meeting later. The Bank is likely to hold interest rates at 0.5% and leave its £200<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">bn</span> asset purchase programme unchanged.<br /><br />In November, the central bank said that the fragile economy and the risk of inflation falling below its target of 2% had led it to extend its quantitative easing scheme, which runs out in January. But since then, the economic data has been largely positive.<br /><br />So, it's likely rates will stay at the record low of 0.5% well into next year. We're not expecting any more <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">QE</span>, but if there is then the pound will weaken. The main problem for those hoping for a recovery in rates is our low interest rates.<br /><br />As other economies such as the US and EU start raising their rates as they exit recession, their currency becomes more attractive due to the higher return. As our rates will likely stay lower for longer, the pound will lose out and likely weaken into 2010, before recovering in the Spring, around the General Election.<br /><br /><strong>Other Data</strong><br />We have the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">ECB</span> monthly report that contains a detailed analysis of the prevailing economic situation and the risks to price stability. It also provides articles on a wide range of topics related to the tasks of the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">ECB</span>. If it's positive, then a strengthening Euro may cause <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">GBP/EUR</span> rates to fall.<br /><br />There is also jobs data for the US. Positive news from the states could help the pound.<br /><br />If you have a requirement to buy or sell a foreign currency, <a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA">open an account with us today.</a> It's free, doesn't obligate you, and allows you access to commercial rates for any transfers over £5k.<br /><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-387828805775866947?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-73608512158795392312009-12-09T08:23:00.005Z2009-12-09T09:00:20.887ZGood Morning. Today is very important for the currency markets, as we have the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">pre</span> budget report for the UK along with some other important measures of the economy. We'll look at this in detail in a moment. First as usual, a snapshot of where rates stand. This is likely to be very different by the end of the day:<br /><br /><ul><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">GBP</span>/EUR 1.1022</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">USD</span> 1.6243</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">AUD</span> 1.7907</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">NZD</span> 2.2882</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">CHF</span> 1.6646</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">DKK</span> 8.2010</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">JPY</span> 142.38</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">GBP</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">NOK</span> 9.3765</li><li>EUR/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">USD</span> 1.4734</li></ul>Before we look at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">today's</span> data, we'll review what happened yesterday. The pound weakened over fears over our financial health. We also saw industrial Production and Manufacturing production figures come in much worse than expected. This caused the pound to fall.<br /><br /><strong>So, if the pound fell, why did <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">GBP</span>/EUR rates go up?</strong><br />Well this is more to do with the Euro than Sterling. We saw Fitch the credit reference agency reduce <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Greeces</span>’ credit rating, weakening the Euro. The pound is still very weak, and it was the bad news from the EU that weakened the Euro and caused rates to climb slightly. Today the focus will be on UK fiscal health.<br /><br /><strong><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Pre</span> Budget Report</strong><br />What is it? Each year the chancellor delivers two reports to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">MPs</span>, updating them on the state of the economy and planned fiscal changes. The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">pre</span>-Budget report (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">PBR</span>) takes place in the autumn with the Budget each spring. This year's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">PBR</span> will be Mr Darling's third since he became chancellor in June 2007 and, with an election imminent, his most important.<br /><br />Mr Darling will update <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">MPs</span> on his latest forecasts for the economy, which has been in recession for more than a year. He is expected to say the economy will shrink 4.75% this year, which is a more severe contraction than the 3.5% drop predicted in April.<br /><br />He will probably also stand by forecasts for growth in 2010 of between 1% and 1.5%. Many economists also expect him to revise upwards his forecast for borrowing this year from the £175<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">bn</span> predicted in April's Budget.<br /><br />The banking crisis and the recession have had a severe impact on the public finances but ministers say they are committed to halving the budget deficit, the gap between revenue and spending, by 2013.<br /><br />The problem is that the governor of the Bank of England said recently the UK has no real plan to repay the huge <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">deficit</span>. The gloomy forecast expected today could well hit the pound very hard. If they announce huge measures to repay the debt then this will weaken Sterling. If they <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">don't</span> spell out a clear plan, this also will be bad news. So, it's hard to see how the pound can benefit from <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">today's</span> reports.<br /><br />He wants to demonstrate that the government is serious about cutting Britain's spiralling budget deficit by a half in four years, whilst at the same time preserving spending on programmes designed to support an economic recovery and front-line services. I don't think we'll see a clear plan on how this will happen, and with the credit agencies hovering over major economies at the moment with the risk of reducing credit ratings, I think the pound is in for a rocky day.<br /><br /><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8402362.stm">Here's a great animation by the BBC </a>on the problems facing Darling.<br /><br /><strong>UK Bank Bonuses</strong><br />A tax on bankers' bonuses is expected to form the centrepiece of Alistair Darling's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">pre</span>-Budget report. Banks will face a 50% levy on bonuses above a level of about £20,000. This is nothing to do with money, and all to do with politics. The public have been baying for blood in the wake of the financial meltdown. Now they have got it, but at what price?<br /><br />Finance is one of our biggest exports. This will make the UK a very unattractive place to do business, and we could see an exodus of our best banking minds. In my view this is short sighted, will raise little revenue, and is little more than political points scoring, at the cost of the economy.<br /><br /><strong>Other Data Today</strong><br />UK - Nationwide Consumer Confidence<br />Ger - Consumer Price Index<br />UK - Trade Balance<br />NZ - Interest Rate Decision<br /><br />Check our twitter updates for news throughout the day, and of course we'll have a detailed report right here on our blog tomorrow, reviewing what effect the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">PBR</span> has on the currency markets.<br /><br />Those that would prefer not to take a risk on their currency costing more as a result of possible Sterling weakness should consider a Forward contract to protect against a downturn.<br /><br />open an account with us below for free, without obligation, and you can then take advantage of our commercial exchange rates.<br /><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-7360851215879539231?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-80988946089187618712009-12-08T08:32:00.003Z2009-12-08T08:36:24.444ZGood Morning. Sterling fell to its weakest in 10 days against the US Dollar yesterday, and unwound some of the previous session's gains versus the euro, weighed down by banking sector concerns and worries over UK fiscal health in the run up to the pre budget report this week. At 08:30am rates are as follows:<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1045</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6368</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.7962</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2950</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7228</li><li>GBP/JPY 145.66</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.246</li><li>EUR/USD 1.4819</li></ul><strong>Euro</strong><br />Following a very quiet week in terms of movement much focus will now be placed on the Bank Of England Interest Rate decision on Thursday of this week to help determine the future direction of the GBP/EUR cross.<br /><br />Any further quantitative easing would be viewed as Sterling negative by investors while an announcement that this scheme has reached and end would almost certainly bode well for the struggling Pound. If you have any upcoming requirement to either buy or sell Euros it would be well worth paying close attention to this release and any accompanying statements.<br /><br />Last week The European Central Bank, (ECB) announced that they will be leaving interest rates on hold at 1% as had been widely forecast. However, they did announce plans to withdraw some of their existing stimulus measures, bringing to an end cheap fixed-rate loans to banks which had been introduced to encourage lending.<br /><br />This has fueled speculation that the ECB may look to hike interest rates sooner than previously thought, although in accompanying statements key officials played this down which has prevented any significant Euro gains at least for the moment.<br /><br />In other news, Euro zone inflation rose to the first positive reading for five months, should this continue it will only add to the speculation building on the ECB to increase interest rates, a luxury that The Bank of England can only dream as they battle to pull the UK economy out of recession.<br /><br />Elsewhere, in a relatively quiet week for data, focus will be on German Industrial figures on Tuesday and inflation data on Wednesday.<br /><br />All things considered it is difficult to see where Sterling is going to get any additional strength from making it vital for anyone with a need to buy Euros in the near future to speak with to their account manager about the various options to ensure you get the very best rate of exchange possible. Those selling would be wise to pay close attention to the Bank of England decision on Thursday, keeping fingers crossed for any Sterling negative sentiment and take advantage of the potential short term spikes.<br /><br /><strong>US Dollar</strong><br />GBP/USD traded in a relatively stable range in the early part of last week with the pound steadily climbing as high as 1.67 against the Dollar benefiting Dollar purchasers for most of the week. However, Friday’s Non Farm Payroll data saw the Pound slip by almost 2 cents by the end of the day.<br /><br />Non Farm payroll is an important piece of data on the monthly economic calendar and shows the change in the number people employed in the US excluding the farming industry. It is widely regarded as a good indicator of the state of the US economy and as such often sees the markets swing heavily one way or the other depending on the results.<br /><br />The figures showed that the US unemployment rate fell in November to 10%, down from 10.2% in October. In total, only 11,000 jobs went over the month - the smallest number since the recession began in December 2007. That was far fewer than the 130,000 expected by most analysts and was a very positive sign for the US economy and also the wider world economy as we emerge from the global recession.<br /><br />This gave the dollar a boost and enabled it to track back some of the losses against the Pound sustained earlier in the week. However, many analysts are hoping there will be a knock on result and that the UK will post similar results with their employment data later in the month.<br />Before then the Pound is expected to have a rocky week ahead. <br /><br />Analysts suggest the pound will come under pressure with the UK government's pre-budget report on Wednesday expected to throw the spotlight on Britain's ballooning debt as it pours money into the economy to drag it out of recession. To compound Sterling’s troubles, concern about the potential exposure of the British banking sector to Dubai's debt troubles is also weighing heavily on the sterling. With this in mind, speak to your FCG account manager to discuss your options to ensure that you are protected against the volatility expected within the market.<br /><br />Other influences on the market this week are the Bank of England interest rate and Quantitative easing meeting which are widely expected to remain unchanged. Whilst in the US risk appetite trends are likely to remain important to US Dollar performance, although Friday's retail sales data will have bearing on the perception of US economic conditions.<br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-8098894608918761871?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-50116768257541013642009-12-07T08:43:00.004Z2009-12-07T09:34:17.998ZGood Morning. Sterling rose against the Euro and US Dollar on Friday, but trimmed its gains as the U.S. currency surged after surprisingly strong jobs data. Today, we'll have a quick look at where rates went last week and as usual have a detailed look at the weeks data releases that may affect exchange rates.<br /><br />First, we'll watch our Director of Foreign exchange on CNBC recently, talking about the pound strength and the US Dollar safe haven status, which is what's driving it. If you cannot view the video automatically, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNNeDIwDoGU">watch it on YouTube here.</a><br /><br /><br /><object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/yNNeDIwDoGU&amp;hl=en_GB&amp;fs=1&amp;"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/yNNeDIwDoGU&hl=en_GB&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Last Weeks Trading</strong><br />The main reason for the pounds gains towards the ends of last week were the better than expected jobs data. As Adam mentioned on CNBC, earlier in the year the dollar enjoyed safe haven status. This meant that investors flocked to the USD and strengthened the currency. Now the world is exiting recession, investors are unwinding these positions, and as a result the US Dollar is weakening and the pound benefited.<br /><br /><strong>UK Bank Bonuses</strong><br />Also to watch this week is news that UK Bank Bonuses may be capped. This is a concern, as finance is our biggest export. If the UK is no longer an attractive place to do business for the banking sector, we could lose out to Switzerland and EU countries that have more favourable rules.<br /><br />The government have itself said this is little to do with finance, and more to do with politics. The government want to jump on the bandwagon of the mood in the country at the moment, and so in the long run we could damage our biggest export for the sake of a few political points in the run up to the election.<br /><br />Robert Peston the BBC business editor talked about the issue on Radio 4 this morning, in his own............ irritating.............. waaaaaaaaaaaaaay. You can <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/">read his blog here</a>, and his written word is certainly better than listening to him speak. If you don't know what I mean, <a href="http://www.murraysworld.com/forum/chit-chat/robert-peston-voice/">click here. </a><br /><br /><strong>This Weeks Data</strong><br /><strong>For the UK,</strong> we have the UK pre budgut report. There are concerns that this will highlight the levels of UK debt, which are reported to be £40k for every UK household. The measures outlined to combat this could cause weakness for Sterling.<br /><br />We also have Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence, industrial and Manufacturing production and an Interest Rate Decision by the Bank of England, where we expect rates to be left on hold again at 0.5%. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP.<br /><br />Likewise, if the BoE has a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish. We will also look to any further signals about the end of Quantitative Easing. So, this data could well cause further volatility for Sterling.<br /><br /><strong>For the EU</strong>, we have a speech by the ECB president following their decision to keep rates on hold last week. He gives a press conference as to how the ECB observes the current European economy and the value of EUR. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. We also have the ECB monthly report that contains a detailed analysis of the prevailing economic situation and the risks to price stability. It also provides articles on a wide range of topics related to the tasks of the ECB.<br /><br /><strong>For the USA</strong>, following last weeks better than expected jobs data, further good news could cause further dollar weakness, benefiting other currencies that are percieved as risky. The monthly budget statement on Thursday will be one to watch, as it summarises the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD. On the other hands, a negative figure (deficit) that indicates government debt is seen as bearish.<br /><br /><strong>Elsewhere</strong>, we have GDP from Japan, and an interest rate decision for New Zealand. Rates are expected to be left on hold, but the Australians surprised us recently, and if the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD.<br /><br />Full Breakdown below. For more information on how these released could affect your particular requirements, please <a href="http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2009/01/contact-us.html">contact us today</a>.<br /><br /><strong>Monday</strong><br /><em>EU - ECB Speech</em><br /><em>US - Fed Speech</em><br /><em>US - Consumer Credit</em><br /><em>EU - Sentiment Index</em><br /><br /><strong>Tuesday</strong><br /><em>UK - Retail Sales</em><br /><em>UK - Industrial Production</em><br /><em>UK - Manufacturing Production</em><br /><em>Ger - Industrial Production</em><br /><em>Jap - Gross Domestic Produc</em><br /><br /><strong>Wednesday</strong><br /><em>UK - Nationwide Consumer Confidence</em><br /><em>Ger - Consumer Price Index</em><br /><em>UK - Trade Balance</em><br /><em>NZ - Interest Rate Decision</em><br /><br /><strong>Thursday</strong><br /><em>Aus - Unemployment</em><br /><em>UK - Interest Rate Decision</em><br /><em>EU - ECB Monthly Report</em><br /><em>US - Jobless Claims</em><br /><em>US - Monthly budget Statement</em><br /><br /><strong>Friday</strong><br /><em>UK - Producer Price Index</em><br /><em>US - Import Prices</em><br /><em>US - Consumer Sentiment</em><br /><em>US - Retail Sales</em><br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-5011676825754101364?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-63167194906226823742009-12-05T21:37:00.002Z2009-12-05T21:51:39.921Z<strong>The pound gains. Sterling up at the start of December.</strong><br />The pound rose on <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">Friday</span> ahead of the weekend, after better than expected Non Farm Payrolls data from the USA. <br /><br />As I <a href="http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2009/12/pound-falls-after-better-news-from-eu.html">outlined in Fridays post</a>, the report is highly volatile. Analysts expected the figure to show a decline of over 100 thousand jobs. However, the actual figure was an astonishing 11 thousand. This is much much better than expected, and has given confidence in the US markets.<br /><br /><strong>How does this help the pound?</strong><br />Confidence in the US Markets mean investors that have been hoarding US Dollars due to the currencies safe haven status, are now investing into riskier currencies. Sterling is one that is benefiting, and this is the <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">reason</span> the pound rose on Friday.<br /><br />However, the gains may be short lived over fears of our level of debt. There's the governments <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">pre</span> budget report <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">next</span> week, and there are rumours there will be some bad news on the amount the UK owe, and the ways in which it's going to be paid back.<br /><br />So, this could be the start of a recovery for the pound, or it could be a short term spike ahead of the p<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">re</span> budget report, as if this is bad the pound could fall back below €1.10.<br /><br /><a href="http://http//foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2007/08/managing-fx-risk.html">Learn ways you can protect yourself here. </a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA">Open a free account</a> with us today, and discuss how we can get you commercial exchange rates that are up to 6% better than you can achieve at the bank.<br /><br />More updates on where Sterling <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">GBP</span> exchange rates will go throughout December, and into 2010 on Monday.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-6316719490622682374?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-27065362159789987432009-12-04T08:30:00.002Z2009-12-04T08:48:57.011ZThe pound fell against the Euro and US Dollar yesterday after weaker than expected UK services sector survey. Also, the European Central Bank detailed steps to withdraw monetary stimulus, which strengthened the Euro and caused rates to fall. We've seen some recovery this morning however, and at 08:30am rates are as follows:<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1028</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6623</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.7951</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2957</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7558</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6617</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.219</li><li>GBP/JPY 146.43</li><li>EUR/USD 1.5069 </li></ul><strong>News from Europe</strong><br />The European Central Bank yesterday left rates on hold at 1% as expected, and this news did not really affect exchange rates. The speech afterwards however caused the Euro to strengthen and Pound to Euro rates fell as a result. They announced they would be lifting the stimulus measures, which signalled that the EU economy is recovering. The ECB announcement pushed sterling lower against the euro as it highlighted the market's view that the Bank of England is set to lag behind other major central banks in terms of exiting measures like Quantitative Easing.<br /><br />As other economies recover faster than ours, their interest rates will start to rise, giving strenth to the currencies. As the Bank of England have already said that our interest rates will stay at record lows throughout 2010, and so the forecast for next year doesn't bode well for Sterling.<br /><br /><strong>Poor UK PMI Data</strong><br />In further negative news for sterling, the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/Markit activity index was lower than expected. "The UK services PMI was weaker-than-expected which highlights the likelihood of an underperforming UK economy. This sets sterling up for potential disappointment given that so much optimism about the UK economy had been priced in," said BNP Paribas currency strategist Ian Stannard.<br /><br /><strong>Swiss Franc (CHF)</strong><br />The dollar continued to probe support levels below parity against the franc on Thursday and hit a low of 0.9960 before rallying back above the 1.00 level later in the US session. The Euro ended little changed against the franc, still significantly below the 1.51 level.<br /><br />The ECB was slightly more dovish than expected which will provide some near-term franc support. There is still likely to be considerable caution ahead of the quarterly monetary policy meeting next week. Speculation of further National Bank protests against franc strength<br />will tend to curb Swiss currency support.<br /><br /><strong>Todays Events</strong><br />All the data today is from the USA. We have employment data, but the most important release to look for is the Non-Farm Payrolls. The report presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile, and therfore hard to predict. So, any difference to the predicted figure can cause USD volatility. We're expecting the decision at 13:30pm to show a negative figure of -111k. If it's more than this, expect GBPUSD rates to climb, and vice versa.<br /><br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><br /><p></p><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a></p><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-2706536215978998743?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-89906973715978749492009-12-03T08:31:00.003Z2009-12-03T08:52:43.245ZGood Morning. The pound rose against most currencies yesterday, after a period of decline. This morning at 08:30am rates are as follows:<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1035</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6689</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.7906</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2916</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7457</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6638</li><li>GBP/JPY 146.44</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.117</li><li>EUR/USD 1.5117</li></ul><p>Sterling rose against the USD and EUR yesterday, extending gains made the previous day as possible fallout from Dubai's debt-related problems eased as it looks like UK banks are not as exposed to the debt problems there as first thought. Risk assets also got a boost after data showed U.S. private sector employers shed fewer jobs in November from October, marking the eighth straight monthly decline in private-sector job losses.</p><p>The pound also rose against a broadly weaker yen, traders said. The yen fell in the wake of the Bank of Japan's emergency policy meeting on Tuesday where it said it provide more liquidity through new fixed 3-month funding.</p><strong>Eurozone</strong><br />Today is an important day for GBP/EUR in particular, as we have lots of important data releases from the Eurozone. We have the following releases that will likely affect exchange rates:<br /><br />EU - <strong>Gross Domestic Product.</strong> This is is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. A rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative. We expect this to show a quarterly rise of 0.4% and an annual decline of -4.1%.<br /><br />We also have <strong>Retail Sales</strong> for the EU. This is is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales.The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. We expect a monthly rise of 0.2% and a decline year on year of -2.4%.<br /><br />An <strong>interest rate decision</strong> is also due for the EU. We expect rates to be left on hold for this month at 1%. A little after the announcement, there is a speech by the ECB. This will be more important than the decision itself.<br /><br />They give a press conference as to how the ECB observes the current European economy and the value of EUR. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. If the speech seems to indicate rates may rise in the coming months, expect the Euro to strengthen and GBP/EUR rates to fall.<br /><br />If the releases from Europe are good today, then we will probably see the recent rise in rates come to an end. If however the releases are not as good as expected, then the Euro may weaken. Either way, we'll probably see some volatility for exchange rates today.<br /><br />To take advantage of any spikes in the market, you may wish to consider placing a Limit/Stop Loss order. A Limit Order is an order to secure currency at a specific price that may not be currently available. This type of contract is particularly useful when the markets are moving in a positive direction for you.This is one of the two most common types of orders, the other being a Stop Loss Order.<br /><br />A Stop Loss Order is used when the market is moving in a negative direction for your currency. An order is placed on file with your broker to help ease the stress of adverse market movements.A stop loss order instructs your broker to buy when the currency hits a certain point. The purpose of the stop loss is obvious – you want to prevent any further movement before the currency falls any further.<br /><br />To find out more about these type of contracts, and if they are suitable for you, <a href="http://foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com/2009/01/contact-us.html">contact us </a>today.<br /><br /><strong>USA</strong><br />We have lots from the US today also, including various measures of unemployment. If figures are good, then we will probably see the dollar weaken slightly as investors take good news as a sign of economic recovery, and diversify their investments to riskier currencies.<br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-8990697371597874949?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-61502713226796035192009-12-02T08:32:00.002Z2009-12-02T08:42:40.536ZGood Morning. Sterling rose against a broadly weaker dollar on Tuesday, although gains were somewhat hampered as data showed growth in UK manufacturing activity unexpectedly slowed. Rates @ 08:30am are as follows:<br /><br />GBP/EUR 1.0990<br />GBP/USD 1.6605<br />GBP/AUD 1.7884<br />GBP/NZD 2.2792<br />GBP/CAD 1.7341<br />GBP/CHF 1.6569<br />GBP/JPY 144.74<br />GBP/ZAR 12.058<br />EUR/USD 1.5103<br /><br /><strong>UK House Prices</strong><br />The pound also rose slightly after better than expected UK house price data. UK house prices have risen for the seventh consecutive month, helped by better-than-expected news from the job market, the Nationwide has said. But overall there has been some surprise that prices have continued to rise steadily in the recession.<br /><br />The Bank of England yesterday said Britain's economy has probably passed its low point and is likely to recover strongly over the coming years, but inflation was not an immediate threat.<br /><br />A Reuters poll on Tuesday showed all respondents said the BoE has nearly finished with its quantitative easing programme but won't raise interest rates from their record low until at least October next year. This is good news in one way, as it indicates that the UK may finally be catching the rest of the world up in exiting recession.<br /><br />however, the fact that our rates are likley to stay at record lows for nearly another year means the pound will probably remain weak. The EU and USA are likely to start raising their interest rates into next year, and this means more return for investors, and thus more investment into these currencies. More investment strengthens the currency. <br /><br />With rates likely to remain low in the UK, it wont be an attractive investment, and so other major currencies are likely to rise before ours, and this will hamper a recovery in Sterling Exchange rates.<br /><br /><strong>Weak US Dollar pushes up gold</strong><br />A weak US dollar has pushed up demand for gold to another record level. Gold struck $1,201.63 (£722.69) an ounce on the London Bullion Market, after striking historic peaks over recent weeks. Demand for gold has been fuelled by moves by central banks to diversify assets.<br />A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for users of rival currencies, which stimulates demand for the precious metal. In turn, this pushes up the price in dollars.<br /><br />A weak dollar is also good for those needing to buy them with Sterling. Rates were as low as $1.30 earlier in the year, and now stand at $1.66. The dollar is weak because as the world exits recession, many investors that had funds in USD as a safe haven are now moving into other currencies weakening the dollar. The pound is not one of the currencies benefiting however due to our low interest rates. The dollar weakness wont last forever, so those with a need to purchase USD should consider doing so sooner rather than later.<br /><br />Open an account with us for free, and take advantage of our commercial exchange rates.<br /><br /><em></em><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-6150271322679603519?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-21663575413457976412009-12-01T08:32:00.005Z2009-12-01T08:41:24.878ZGood Morning. Sterling hit a one-month low against the euro on Monday after an unexpected fall in British consumer confidence underlined weakness in the domestic economy.<br /><div><br />The pound also slipped against the dollar after earlier gaining on the view that Dubai may have avoided the worst of its debt-related problems, prompting some demand for currencies considered to be higher risk. Rates @ 08:30am are as follows:</div><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.0945</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6476</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.7960</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2852</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7292</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6516</li><li>GBP/JPY 143.29</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.138</li><li>EUR/USD 1.5045</li></ul><div><strong>Pound/Euro</strong></div><div><br /></div><div><strong></strong></div><div><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vAY0KStDEkE/SxTWA4dfnuI/AAAAAAAAAK8/8925CJ6ndac/s1600/GBPEUR.png"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410184363023245026" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 125px" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vAY0KStDEkE/SxTWA4dfnuI/AAAAAAAAAK8/8925CJ6ndac/s400/GBPEUR.png" border="0" /></a><br /><br /></div><div></div><div><br /><br /></div><div></div><div><br /></div><div></div><div><br /></div><div></div><div><br /></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div><br /></div><div>This week will see the European Central Bank announce its latest interest rate decision, Although it is expected to remain at 1% a rate increase cannot be ruled out with the Euro zone now officially out of recession and building towards full recovery. However, the Euro could find further support if the GDP projections are more optimistic than expected, and if it signals a phasing out of stimulus measures more quickly than previously expected. </div><div><br /></div><div></div><div>Tuesday's unemployment report will also be closely-watched for evidence on the strength of the current European Workforce. If figures are lower than expected we may see Euro Strength however if figures are higher than expected we will see the reverse and potential Euro weakness.<br /><br />Last week was generally a reasonably quiet week for Sterling a drop in investors' risk appetite after Dubai's request to delay debt repayments gave the Euro a fresh impetus, with Euro zone banks thought to have less exposure to the UAE region than their UK counterparts.<br /><br />Currently we are seeing a relatively stagnant market with not too much movement either side. What one can do to do combat this is to put in a STOP/LIMIT order; this allows you the client to potentially achieve a rate which is currently not available on the market place. </div><div><br /></div><div></div><div>For e.g. if you are looking to achieve a rate of 1.12 and the market is currently not there you put a limit to try and achieve this over an allotted time frame, and to protect yourself you may place a stop at around 1.08 to safeguard your currency against any pitfalls within the market. (This example is set for those buying Euros) </div><div><br /></div><div></div><div><strong>Pound/US Dollar</strong></div><br /><br /><div><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vAY0KStDEkE/SxTWUhtC0JI/AAAAAAAAALE/zgPkbmGLWZ4/s1600/GBPUSD.png"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410184700511834258" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 125px" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vAY0KStDEkE/SxTWUhtC0JI/AAAAAAAAALE/zgPkbmGLWZ4/s400/GBPUSD.png" border="0" /></a><br /><br /></div><div></div><div><br /></div><div><em></em></div><div><br /><br /></div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div> </div><div>This weeks GBP/USD rates showed the full volatility of the markets climbing to above the 1.67 level earlier in the week only to fall to below the 1.63 mark towards the end of the week. Initial losses to the Dollar came as a result of comments from the Federal Reserve that declines would be tolerated so long as such movements are not disorderly, along with comments also coming from the Russian Central Bank that it would diversify its currency reserves. </div><div> </div><div>However, the US Dollar found much needed strength towards the end of the week on the back of its haven status after a sudden deflation in investor’s risk appetite after the breaking news regarding the debt crisis in Dubai.</div><div><br />US GDP during the third-quarter was revised down to a 2.8% annualized pace from 3.5% previously. However, the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's November policy meeting revealed a more optimistic outlook, which was supported by stronger than expected housing market data and labour market data. </div><div> </div><div>Finally this coupled with Weak GDP results from the UK, GBP/USD ultimately closed down 0.05% at 1.6498, those converting US Dollars into Sterling.</div><div><br />Looking forward to this coming week, risk appetite trends are likely to remain a major influence to the US Dollar's performance and are especially likely to be influenced by any news form Dubai. Additionally this week also sees the release of the Non-farm Payrolls report which will be watched closely for evidence that the US labour market is close to reaching a turning point.</div><div><em></em> </div><div><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a></div><div> </div><div><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></div><div><br /></div><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-2166357541345797641?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-68476533556778726852009-11-30T08:25:00.002Z2009-11-30T08:53:03.283ZGood Morning. Today as usual, we'll take a detailed look at the weeks data and how this may affect exchange rates. Let's have a quick look at where rates stand this morning:<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.0971</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6502</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.8020</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.3000</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7408</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6526</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.185</li><li>GBP/JPY 142.10</li><li>EUR/USD 1.5036<br /></li></ul><p>The main news to kick off the week is the debt crisis in Dubai. The main stock markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have dived at least 6%. The falls came after Dubai's property developer, Nakheel, asked for trading of some of its Islamic bonds to be suspended. </p><p>Shares are trading for the first time since the state-owned property company Dubai World asked for an extension on repaying its debts. The central bank of the United Arab Emirates said on Sunday it would provide banks with extra liquidity. </p><p>While shares in the Middle East dropped sharply, Asian shares rebounded on Monday on hopes the Dubai debt crisis will not spread to other financial markets after the UAE central bank decision. The yen rose against the dollar after the announcement from Nakheel, paring earlier declines. </p><p>The fear for Sterling, is that many UK banks are heavily exposed to this, as they have lent Billions of pounds into this market. As I've said here before, finance and banking is one of the biggest parts of our economy, and one of our biggest exports. So, any exposure could be negative for the pound. </p><p>"The UK has the biggest loan exposure to Dubai among the G7, which should ensure sterling underperformance against the forex majors," said Lena Komileva, head of G7 market economics at Tullett Prebon.</p><strong></strong><strong>This Weeks Data</strong><br />For the UK, we have already had Consumer Confidence data today, that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. The figures were much worse than expected, and the pound has fallen as a result. We also have some inflationary measures later in the week. The main driver for the pound is likely to be the developing news from Dubai; as UK banks have lots of exposure to this market, it doesn't bode well for Sterling.<br /><br />In the Eurozone we also have inflationary measures, along with Gross Domestic Product and an interest rate decision. It's likely that rates will be left on hold, so the main news to watch is Gross Domestic Product. This a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. It's considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health, and can therfore have a big impact on the Euros value, and thus GBP/EUR rates.<br /><br />In the USA, we have various measures of employment, and Nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The report presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile, and therfore hard to predict. So, any difference to the predicted figure can cause USD volatility.<br /><br />Elsewhere, we have GDP for Canada and Switzerland, retail sales for Australia, and Commodity prices for New Zealand. This is is considered as an early indicator of export price changes. The price changes influence GDP and exchange rates. An increase in prices may indicate strength of the NZD, while a decrease in prices may indicate weakness of the NZD.<br /><br /><strong>Monday</strong><br /><em>UK - Consumer Confidence</em><br /><em>UK - Money Supply</em><br /><em>UK - Mortgage Approvals</em><br /><em>EU - Consumer Price Index</em><br /><em>Can - Gross Domestic Product</em><br /><br /><strong>Tuesday</strong><br /><em>Aus - Building Permits</em><br /><em>Aus - Interest Rate Decision</em><br /><em>Swi - Gross Domestic Product</em><br /><em>Ger - Retail Sales</em><br /><em>Ger - Purchasing Managers Index</em><br /><em>EU - Purchasing Managers Index</em><br /><em>EU - Unemployment</em><br /><br /><strong>Wednesday</strong><br /><em>UK - PMI Construction</em><br /><em>EU - Producer Price Index</em><br /><em>US - Employment</em><br /><br /><strong>Thursday</strong><br /><em>Aus - Retail Sales</em><br /><em>NZ - Commodity Prices</em><br /><em>EU - Purchasing Managers Index</em><br /><em>UK - Purchasing Managers Index</em><br /><em>EU - Gross Domestic Product</em><br /><em>EU - Retail Sales</em><br /><em>EU - Interest Rate Decision</em><br /><em>US - Jobless Claims</em><br /><br /><strong>Friday</strong><br /><em>Swi - Consumer Price Index</em><br /><em>Can - Unemployment</em><br /><em>US - Nonfarm Payrolls</em><br /><em>US - Unemployment</em><br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-6847653355677872685?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-62598522878801211112009-11-27T08:28:00.003Z2009-11-27T08:41:02.598Z<div>Good Morning. The pound has remained under pressure after concerns over exposure of UK Banks to the debt crisis in Dubai. Rates @ 08:30am are as follows:</div><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.0988</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6325</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.8207</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.3175</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7521</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6578</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.350</li><li>GBP/JPY 140.77</li><li>EUR/USD 1.4853</li></ul><p>Reuters have reported that Dubai's shock move earlier in the week to restructure Dubai World, and delay repayment on some of the company's $59 billion of liabilities, sent ripples through financial markets, denting equities and riskier currencies.</p><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vAY0KStDEkE/Sw-Ol1yOD3I/AAAAAAAAAK0/je8jaoB_-5Y/s1600/WorldDubai.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408698458239274866" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 244px" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vAY0KStDEkE/Sw-Ol1yOD3I/AAAAAAAAAK0/je8jaoB_-5Y/s400/WorldDubai.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div></div><br /><div><em></em></div><br /><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div><em></em> </div><div>Some analysts said the pound was underperforming because of concerns that some UK banks may be affected, although no exposure was confirmed. </div><div><br />"There are concerns regarding the extent of the exposure of the UK banks to Dubai, hence sterling is coming under pressure," said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas.</div><div><br />The pound is particularly sensitive to any banking sector problems, given the fact that the financial sector makes a large contribution to the UK economy. This is in addition to the news earlier in the week that the Bank of England gave a £60bn loan to some UK banks. </div><div> </div><div>Lack of confidence in the Banking sector is one of the main drivers for Sterling weakness at the moment. As yesterday was a market holiday in the US for thanksgiving, trade was fairly thin. Most investors chose to sell riskier currencies such as the pound, helping to dent the currency. </div><div> </div><div><strong>Strong Yen harming Japanese Eeconomy</strong></div><div>Japan's finance minister has said the strength of the yen is harmful to the country's economy.<br />In trading the currency has touched 84 to the dollar, the US currency's lowest level since the mid-1990s. </div><div><br />A high yen damages the competitiveness of Japanese exports, which have been the engine of the country's growth.With much of the relative strength caused by dollar selling rather than yen buying, there may be little the government can do alone.</div><div><br />Enjoy your weekend.</div><div><em></em> </div><div><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a></div><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-6259852287880121111?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-91377162298017434042009-11-26T08:29:00.002Z2009-11-26T08:41:29.783ZGood Morning. The pound has fallen quite a bit overnight, after yesterdays GDP data showed that the UK is the only major economy still in recession. At 08:30am pound exchange rates are as follows:<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.0971</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6556</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.7971</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2914</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7407</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6560</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.197</li><li>GBP/JPY 143.72</li><li>EUR/USD 1.508</li></ul><strong>Sterling Falls again</strong><br />Sterling fell this morning, losing more than 1% against the US Dollar while the pound also fel against the Euro, hitting a 1 month low as it remained under pressure in the wake of Wednesday's gross domestic product data.<br /><br />The data showed the British economy shrank by 0.3 percent in the third quarter compared with the initial estimate of a 0.4 percent contraction. This came as a disappointment to some who were looking for a bigger revision and it exacerbated concerns that the UK economic recovery is lagging that of other major economies. So, the figures were not as good as some analysts had expected, and so this is the main reason for the dip in exchange rates.<br /><br />The new figures confirm the economy has contracted for six consecutive quarters - the longest unbroken stretch of since records began in 1955. The UK is lagging many of its rivals. France, Germany Japan and the US have all already exited recession.<br /><br />Earlier on Wednesday, Bank of England monetary policy committee member Andrew Sentance said there were signs the UK economy had returned to growth in the second half of this year, however the markets have reacted and Sterling has lost a significant amount of it's value.<br /><br />Given our huge debt levels, and concerns over the banking sector mean there's little hope the pound will rebound any time soon. Many analysts are expecting the pound to remaind weak until at least the General Election next year. If you have a requirement to purchase a Foreign Currency with Sterling, then you should consider fixing rates now. Even if your currency is not needed for some time, you can pay a 10% deposit and lock in a rate for the full amount you need, for up to 2 years into the future.<br /><br />This will protect you against further losses, and give you peace of mind knowing what your currency will cost you. <br /><br /><strong>Dollar Falls</strong><br />The US dollar has hit a 14-year low against the Japanese yen with low interest rates in the US making the greenback less attractive to investors. The dollar slipped to 86.5 yen, its lowest level since July 1995.<br /><br />The US has indicated it is unconcerned about the dollar's slide, and will not intervene to strengthen it. Many traders are swapping dollar holdings for gold as a safer investment in the current uncertain economic climate.<br /><br />Usually the pound benefits from this type of news, but for the reasons already listed above, not many people are interested in investing in Sterling right now.<br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-9137716229801743404?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7488857422262431169.post-78236077805219334212009-11-25T08:28:00.003Z2009-11-25T08:43:01.116ZGood Morning. Sterling fell yesterday as concerns about the Banking sector dented appetite for riskier currencies, while Bank of England policymakers offered little insight into the outlook for monetary policy. At 08:30am rates stand as follows:<br /><ul><li>GBP/EUR 1.1127</li><li>GBP/USD 1.6710</li><li>GBP/AUD 1.8019</li><li>GBP/NZD 2.2841</li><li>GBP/CAD 1.7598</li><li>GBP/CHF 1.6792</li><li>GBP/JPY 147.50</li><li>GBP/ZAR 12.373</li><li>EUR/USD 1.5012</li></ul><strong>UK Banking Sector</strong><br />The Bank of England yesterday revealed secret loans to UK banks last year of more than £60 Billion pounds. It was also revealed that Chancellor Alistair Darling had agreed to underwrite any losses which the Bank may have made on the loans. <br /><br />It's headline news, and rather than repeat it all here, you can see a detailed report <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8375969.stm">on the BBC website here</a>. In terms of the effect on the currency markets, finance forms a huge part of our conomy, and is also our biggest export. This news will do little to spur confidence in the economy, and the pound has fallen as a result.<br /><br />The big question is what else is there that we don't know? There is already talk of the UK's credit rating being downgraded, and this will fuel that speculation, and will hurt the pound. The governor of the BoE, Mervyn King, again said a weak pound was needed to help the ecomomy, which is not what clients needint to buy foreign currency need to hear!<br /><br />Analysts said King's comments offered limited new direction in terms of policy outlook, while underlining differences among members of the bank's interest rate-setting committee who recognise the economy has been slowly improving and those who are cautious about normalising monetary policy.<br /><br />"There's a fair amount of division in the committee and this is holding sterling back," said Phyllis Papadavid, currency strategist at Societe Generale in London. "The lack of certainty around policy is a big driver of sterling today."<br /><br /><strong>US Economic Growth</strong><br />The US economy grew by far less than originally forecast between July and September, according to revised official figures. The latest estimate said the economy grew at an annual pace of 2.8%. That compared with the 3.5% the Department of Commerce initially forecast earlier this month.<br /><br />The change in the gross domestic product figure came partly because imports, which count as negative, were higher than thought. Imports increased at an annual rate of 21%, the biggest gain since the second quarter of 1985, and a big jump on the 16% first thought. US GDP is expressed as an annualised rate, or annual pace, which shows what the annual rate would be if the latest change continued for the rest of the year.<br /><br />Usually, good data from the USA would strengthen the dollar, and we would see GBPUSD rates fall. However, as USD is a safe haven currency, good news spurs investors into riskier currencies. Unfortunately the pound is not very attractive, and so other currencies such as AUD benefited. As investors pull out of the USD, it actually weakens it and GBPUSD rates have gone up despite the bad news from the UK, however this is purely dollar driven.<br /><em></em><br /><em>When you get in touch, ensure you mention you heard about foremost currency group through our Blog. <strong>Simply quote 'Blog'</strong></em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open a free Trading Facility </a><br /><p><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Online/OpenAccount.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow">Open an online Trading Account </a></p><p><a href="mailto:aja@fcgworld.co.uk?subject=Re:ForemostCurrencyBlog">Email Me</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/Private/Default.aspx?src=BLOGAJA" rel="nofollow"><img alt="Foremost Currency Group" src="http://www.efirstfx.com/aja/images/270x90.gif" /> </a><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7488857422262431169-7823607780521933421?l=foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>FCGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18243407247157339109noreply@blogger.com